Probability is a mathematical concept that deals with the likeliness or chances of a certain event occurring or not occurring. It is used to determine the chances of something happening in the near future based on material evidence and the role of related factors in such occurrence of any event. It can be represented by values ranging between 0 and 1. A value of 0.5 indicates that there are 50% chances of an event occurring; a value over that of 0.5 represents likely chances of an event occurring.
Probability is a widely used concept in decision making. It supplements a decision with logical arguments and validates the decision making. It is based on simple mathematical calculations and does not take into account uncertain and illogical factors associated with a certain event whose occurrence is to be determined. If you are a student and looking for your Probability Assignment Help, this article will help you to clear your confusion about probability.
APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY
There are wide ranging applications of probability. It is near impossible to club all such applications together. This is so because the probability is a highly realistic concept and applies to anything and everything. One can apply probability to find out the chances of them failing or passing an exam, a businessperson applies probability to find out the viability of his investment and its chances of fetching returns. It simply determines the chances of an event occurring or not occurring based on the availability of the data.
Here are some real-life applications of probability.
- Forecasting weather events
- Predicting occurrence of natural disasters
- Calculating investment returns
- Grabbing a lottery
- Card games
- Dice games
- Predicting Election verdicts
In the above mentioned activities, probability plays a vital role. All the determining decisions in these fields depend on the game of probability.
FORMULA FOR PROBABILITY
The formula for calculating probability is quite simple and based on general sense. It can be calculated using the given formula:
Number of desired outcomes/ Total number of outcomes
TYPES OF PROBABILITY
Probability is categorized into four major types. This classification is based on the types of inputs that are taken into consideration for calculating the probability of an event occurring in the coming future. These four types are namely theoretical probability, Classic probability, experimental probability, and Subjective Probability. Here is a brief discussion of each of these types sequentially.
1. Theoretical probability:
Theoretical probability determines the possibility of something happening based on the chances of that event occurring out of the total probabilities. For instance, if a deck of cards is shuffled the probability of getting a king of spades is 1: 52.
Examples of theoretical probability:
- Dual dice rolling events
- Coin tossing events
2. Classic probability:
It is one of the simplest concepts of probability. Classical probability records the possibility of a certain event occurring which has an equal number of alternate outcomes.
It is based on the assumption that a prescribed activity has a definite set of possible outcomes.
Examples of classical probability:
- Choosing answer to a multiple choice question
- Rolling a dice (Equal probability of getting any number in the range 1 and 6 )
3. Experimental probability:
Experimental probability determines the possibility of obtaining a defined outcome based on practical experiments. It is determined after conducting an experiment and recording the obtained outcomes, amongst all possible outcomes. The outcome that has been obtained the highest number of times in the experiment has the highest chances of occurring based on the experimental probability method.
Examples of experimental probability:
- Recording the number of times heads and tails occur while tossing a coin 11 times
- Recording the number of times 6 occurs in rolling a dice 15 times
4. Subjective probability:
Subjective probability is not actually a logical classification of probability. There is no defined formula for calculating subjective probability. The possibility of an event occurring in the future is estimated by the spectator himself based on prior knowledge of the facts and certain personal assumptions. This type of probability is subject to a range of factors that may or may not be logically justifiable.
Examples of Subjective probability:
- Predicting the winning team at a sports event
- Chances of a guest visiting
These four types of probability are employed by individuals to obtain the desired results for a given set of events. Out of all the types, the classic probability type, which also happens to be the simplest of them all, is used popularly. It is applied to a simpler set of data values to obtain the desired value of probability between 0 and 1.
Probability has been playing an elemental role in the decision making process, especially in large business firms. It plays on a number of factors. It may not precisely predict the outcome every time. Probability is entrusted with the job of predicting the most likely outcome. Even after such uncertainty is associated with it, the probability is still believed to be worthy practice and it is adopted by the most renowned and experienced organizations.